Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Independiente Rivadavia
Our model puts a Gimnasia (Mendoza) win at 45.4% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.52 to 1.16.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1502 against 1517, a gap of 14 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.