Fiorentina vs Juventus
Our model puts a Juventus win at 50.5% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.04 to 1.62.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1797 against 1654 for Fiorentina, a gap of 143 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Juventus's attack should find room against Fiorentina's defence, by 200 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Juventus take 16.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.