FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen
Our model puts a FC Utrecht win at 39.1% in this Eredivisie fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.41 to 1.33.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, NEC Nijmegen's attack should find room against FC Utrecht's defence, by 136 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.