Estoril vs Maritimo
Our model puts an Estoril win at 44.1% in this Primeira Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.52 to 1.21.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1500 against 1477, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Estoril's attack should find room against Maritimo's defence, by 109 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Maritimo collect 3.7 cards a match, on 15.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
77.8% of Estoril's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
59.6% of the shots on target Maritimo face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.