Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Our model puts a Liverpool win at 52.8% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.04 to 1.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Liverpool carry a rating of 1876 against 1728 for Crystal Palace, a gap of 148 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Liverpool's attack should find room against Crystal Palace's defence, by 184 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Liverpool take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
72.2% of Liverpool's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
52.3% of the shots on target Crystal Palace face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.