Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) vs Lanús

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

29%

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) wins

25%

Draw

47%

Lanús wins

xG Home

1.24

Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero)

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.64

Lanús

Analysis

Our model puts a Lanús win at 46.5% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.64.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Lanús are hard to beat

Lanús have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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