Celta Vigo vs Levante
Our model puts a Celta Vigo win at 52.6% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.67 to 1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Celta Vigo's attack should find room against Levante's defence, by 93 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Celta Vigo manage 9.2 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
79.2% of the shots on target Celta Vigo face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.