Caykur Rizespor vs Erzurum BB

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 10:30

Win probability

45%

Caykur Rizespor wins

25%

Draw

30%

Erzurum BB wins

xG Home

1.55

Caykur Rizespor

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.20

Erzurum BB

Analysis

Our model puts a Caykur Rizespor win at 45.1% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.55 to 1.2.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1509 against 1484, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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