Carrarese vs Sampdoria
Our model puts a Carrarese win at 47.2% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.05.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1436 against 1431, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Carrarese are off their season peak
Carrarese peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1436 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Carrarese struggles to hit the target: 24.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Sampdoria take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
80% of Carrarese's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
53.7% of the shots on target Sampdoria face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.