Brest vs Lyon
Our model puts a Lyon win at 47.7% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.55.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Brest at 2.8, which implies about 35.7%. Our model has it at 26.7% — 9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Lyon carry a rating of 1764 against 1626 for Brest, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lyon's attack should find room against Brest's defence, by 160 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Brest take 15.4 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
27.8% of Brest's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75.8% of the shots on target Lyon face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.