Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
Our model puts a Boca Juniors win at 51.2% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1529 against 1512, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Boca Juniors are hard to beat
Boca Juniors have gone 13 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.