Besiktas vs Genclerbirligi
Our model puts a Besiktas win at 73.1% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.18 to 0.6.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.6% of the time — 247 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Besiktas carry a rating of 1632 against 1467 for Genclerbirligi, a gap of 165 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Besiktas's attack should find room against Genclerbirligi's defence, by 203 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Besiktas take 16.6 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
38.9% of Besiktas's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
76.8% of the shots on target Besiktas face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 69.8%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.