Austin FC vs Portland Timbers

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 00:00

Win probability

38%

Austin FC wins

25%

Draw

36%

Portland Timbers wins

xG Home

1.43

Austin FC

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.37

Portland Timbers

Analysis

Our model puts an Austin FC win at 38.4% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.37.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1478 against 1496, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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