Aldosivi vs River Plate

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 20:00

Win probability

26%

Aldosivi wins

23%

Draw

51%

River Plate wins

xG Home

1.21

Aldosivi

Blowout %

23%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.82

River Plate

Analysis

Our model puts a River Plate win at 51.3% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.21 to 1.82.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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