Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Our model puts a Trabzonspor win at 51.1% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.01 to 1.61.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.5% of the time — 779 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Trabzonspor carry a rating of 1632 against 1514 for Alanyaspor, a gap of 118 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Trabzonspor's attack should find room against Alanyaspor's defence, by 160 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Trabzonspor are on a run
Trabzonspor arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Alanyaspor hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Trabzonspor hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
80.7% of the shots on target Trabzonspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.