1. FC Magdeburg vs St. Pauli

Sunday, 8 November 2026 at 12:30

Win probability

38%

1. FC Magdeburg wins

31%

Draw

31%

St. Pauli wins

xG Home

1.07

1. FC Magdeburg

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.95

St. Pauli

Analysis

Our model puts a 1. FC Magdeburg win at 38% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.07 to 0.95.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,561 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 922 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

St. Pauli are hard to beat

St. Pauli have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 1 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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