York City vs Northampton Town
Our model puts a York City win at 60.9% in this FA Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.95 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Northampton Town are off their season peak
Northampton Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1409 today, 91 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.