VfL Osnabruck vs Kaiserslautern
Our model puts a Kaiserslautern win at 39.5% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Kaiserslautern are on a run
Kaiserslautern arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Kaiserslautern take 14.9 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.