Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 23:00

Win probability

33%

Tigres UANL wins

25%

Draw

43%

Cruz Azul wins

xG Home

1.35

Tigres UANL

Blowout %

25%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.57

Cruz Azul

Analysis

Our model puts a Cruz Azul win at 42.5% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.57.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Cruz Azul are on a run

Cruz Azul arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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