Tigre vs Sarmiento (Junín)

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

49%

Tigre wins

24%

Draw

27%

Sarmiento (Junín) wins

xG Home

1.69

Tigre

Blowout %

43%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.17

Sarmiento (Junín)

Analysis

Our model puts a Tigre win at 49.2% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 1.17.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,598 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.4% of the time — 790 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1484 against 1496, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 3 November 2026 · aleavici-football

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