Samsunspor vs Konyaspor
Our model puts a Samsunspor win at 45.9% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.52 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Konyaspor collect 3.5 cards a match, on 13.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
74.6% of the shots on target Konyaspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.