Saint-Étienne vs Stade Laval
Our model puts a Saint-Étienne win at 76.2% in this Ligue 2 fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.45 to 0.64.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 84.1% of the time — 88 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 4.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Saint-Etienne carry a rating of 1576 against 1462 for Stade Laval, a gap of 114 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Saint-Étienne's attack should find room against Stade Laval's defence, by 149 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Saint-Étienne are on a run
Saint-Étienne arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
36.4% of Saint-Étienne's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.