Red Bull New York vs Atlanta United FC

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 21:00

Win probability

52%

Red Bull New York wins

23%

Draw

25%

Atlanta United FC wins

xG Home

1.80

Red Bull New York

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.17

Atlanta United FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Red Bull New York win at 51.6% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 1.17.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1478 against 1475, a gap of 4 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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