Queens Park Rangers vs Lincoln City
Our model puts a Queens Park Rangers win at 37.5% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.33.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Lincoln City carry a rating of 1608 against 1494 for Queens Park Rangers, a gap of 113 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lincoln City's attack should find room against Queens Park Rangers's defence, by 106 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Lincoln City collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.1 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.