Port Vale vs Scunthorpe United
Our model puts a Port Vale win at 66.6% in this FA Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.36 to 1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70% of the time — 237 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Port Vale are off their season peak
Port Vale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1445 today, 55 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Port Vale struggles to hit the target: 28.7% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Port Vale manage 9.6 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.