Pisa vs Sudtirol
Our model puts a Pisa win at 54.7% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1486 against 1467, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Sudtirol face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.