Parma vs Bologna
Our model puts a Bologna win at 48.1% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.09 to 1.56.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Bologna carry a rating of 1730 against 1602 for Parma, a gap of 127 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Early or late
88.9% of Parma's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.