Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs KV Mechelen
Our model puts an Oud-Heverlee Leuven win at 39.8% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.19.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Oud-Heverlee Leuven struggles to hit the target: 23.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
42.9% of Oud-Heverlee Leuven's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.