Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Our model puts an Athletic Club win at 41% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.26 to 1.44.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Athletic Club are off their season peak
Athletic Club peaked at 1746 this season and sit at 1699 today, 46 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Athletic Club take 15.1 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
80% of Osasuna's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
51% of the shots on target Osasuna face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.