Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Our model puts a Manchester City win at 55.4% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.98 to 1.77.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Manchester City carry a rating of 1940 against 1730 for Nottingham Forest, a gap of 210 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Manchester City's attack should find room against Nottingham Forest's defence, by 188 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Manchester City take 15.8 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.