Newport County vs Walsall
Our model puts a Walsall win at 42.7% in this FA Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.18 to 1.43.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Walsall carry a rating of 1465 against 1369 for Newport County, a gap of 96 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Newport County are off their season peak
Newport County peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1369 today, 131 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Newport County face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.