Necaxa vs Tijuana

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

29%

Necaxa wins

24%

Draw

47%

Tijuana wins

xG Home

1.27

Necaxa

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.70

Tijuana

Analysis

Our model puts a Tijuana win at 47.1% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.7.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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