Mantova vs Hellas Verona
Our model puts a Mantova win at 36.6% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.26 to 1.26.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Mantova hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.