Málaga vs Racing Santander

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 13:00

Win probability

38%

Málaga wins

27%

Draw

35%

Racing Santander wins

xG Home

1.31

Málaga

Blowout %

23%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.23

Racing Santander

Analysis

Our model puts a Málaga win at 38.4% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.23.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Racing Santander's attack should find room against Málaga's defence, by 136 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Market odds

2.40

Málaga

3.50

Draw

2.80

Racing Santander

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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