Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town
Our model puts a Leyton Orient win at 44.3% in this FA Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
70% of Leyton Orient's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 20 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.