Leganés vs Albacete
Our model puts a Leganés win at 49.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 1.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Leganés collect 3.5 cards a match, on 16.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
36.4% of Albacete's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.