Huddersfield Town vs Exeter City
Our model puts a Huddersfield Town win at 56.5% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.72 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Huddersfield Town are on a run
Huddersfield Town arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.