Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Our model puts a Holstein Kiel win at 46.9% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1542 against 1541, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arminia Bielefeld's attack should find room against Holstein Kiel's defence, by 128 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Holstein Kiel collect 3.7 cards a match, on 13.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.