Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde
Our model puts a Harrogate Town win at 49.6% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 1.26.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
AFC Fylde carry a rating of 1498 against 1405 for Harrogate Town, a gap of 93 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Harrogate Town are off their season peak
Harrogate Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1405 today, 95 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.