Goztepe vs Istanbul Basaksehir
Our model puts an Istanbul Basaksehir win at 39.1% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.39.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Istanbul Basaksehir's attack should find room against Goztepe's defence, by 134 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Goztepe are on a run
Goztepe arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.