Gillingham vs Barrow
Our model puts a Gillingham win at 61.5% in this FA Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.93 to 0.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Gillingham are off their season peak
Gillingham peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1400 today, 100 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Barrow struggles to hit the target: 26.5% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Barrow manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
76.9% of Gillingham's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.