Fulham vs Newcastle United
Our model puts a Fulham win at 39.4% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Fulham at 2.2, which implies about 45.5%. Our model has it at 39.4% — 6.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Newcastle United's attack should find room against Fulham's defence, by 137 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Fulham struggles to hit the target: 27.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
40% of Fulham's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.