Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar
Our model puts a Fortuna Sittard win at 60.2% in this Eredivisie fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.91 to 0.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Early or late
75% of Telstar's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 20 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
76.4% of the shots on target Telstar face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.