Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale
Our model puts a Fleetwood Town win at 54.1% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.72 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fleetwood Town's attack should find room against Rochdale's defence, by 114 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Fleetwood Town are off their season peak
Fleetwood Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1443 today, 57 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.