FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC
Our model puts a Nashville SC win at 40.3% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.37 to 1.49.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Nashville SC's attack should find room against FC Cincinnati's defence, by 93 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Nashville SC are hard to beat
Nashville SC have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.