Eyupspor vs Kocaelispor
Our model puts an Eyupspor win at 44.3% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.6 to 1.3.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Kocaelispor are off their season peak
Kocaelispor peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1428 today, 72 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Eyupspor manage 9.1 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
28.6% of Kocaelispor's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 7 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
54.5% of the shots on target Eyupspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.