Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles
Our model puts an Excelsior win at 40.3% in this Eredivisie fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.32.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Go Ahead Eagles's attack should find room against Excelsior's defence, by 132 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Go Ahead Eagles hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Go Ahead Eagles take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.