Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury Town

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:00

Win probability

44%

Eastleigh wins

25%

Draw

32%

Shrewsbury Town wins

xG Home

1.59

Eastleigh

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.31

Shrewsbury Town

Analysis

Our model puts an Eastleigh win at 43.8% in this FA Cup fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.31.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 885 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Shrewsbury Town are off their season peak

Shrewsbury Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1447 today, 53 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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