Dover Athletic vs Wealdstone

Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 15:00

Win probability

28%

Dover Athletic wins

23%

Draw

50%

Wealdstone wins

xG Home

1.38

Dover Athletic

Blowout %

49%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.93

Wealdstone

Analysis

Our model puts a Wealdstone win at 49.7% in this FA Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.93.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 748 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1491 against 1496, a gap of 4 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 31 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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