Carlisle United vs Salford City
Our model puts a Salford City win at 63.7% in this FA Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.08 to 2.3.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,454 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.5% of the time — 474 fixtures in that band. That is 8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Salford City are on a run
Salford City arrive on 7 straight wins, part of 10 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.